Playoffs Week 3

Hello all, Conference Finals week. Not many things you can do with only 2 games left. If you are well behind, pick two upsets. If you’re ahead, pick the two favorites. Arizona is a slightly better money pick with only 27% picked and 40% win prob.

Best of luck!

 … >>read more>>

Playoffs Week 2

Welcome to Week 2 of the playoffs!

The best pick by far is all in on a Seattle upset of Carolina, with a 43% chance of winning but only 23% picked. If you want to take a bigger risk (although it’s not buying you much contrarian-ness), Green Bay and Pittsburgh are the upset picks. New England (69%, 68%) would be your bump up pick.

Last week I also posted a chart for expected playoff wins, calculated from implied win probabilities from Vegas odds. The updated picks are below this chart.

Here’s the chart for this week.

And here’s the … >>read more>>

Confidence Picks For All 12 Playoff Teams

Reader @bwitt30 requested my thoughts/analysis on a playoff confidence pool where you rank all 12 teams playoff teams prior to the first games. Here’s what I came up with.

I used Vegas odds to calculate an implied probability (much like the regular season picks), except for the 2nd round, which I couldn’t find any odds for. For those picks, I used simulation models from another website. I ranked the teams according to the number of wins you can expect for each team and assigned confidence points accordingly:

The data that’s missing is the “public picked” data that would give us … >>read more>>

Playoffs Week 1

PLAYOFFS? We’re talking about PLAYOFFS!

Welcome to week 1 of the NFL playoffs! It’s a different game in the playoffs, with only 4 games going on. Here are the picks:


The strategies are a bit different… There are three potential strategies:

  • Go with base picks, and potentially run the table (12% chance) and try to beat everyone on tiebreakers
  • Go with an upset all in, in this case yellow picks Minnesota or Houston.
  • Go with the bump up pick, such as the blue picks this week, Washington or GB, all in and hope for an upset somewhere.

Best of … >>read more>>

Week 17 Confidence Pool Picks

The end of the regular season is upon us! Welcome to Week 17,  and I hope this year has been a profitable one for all of you! First games are tomorrow at 1 PM Eastern, so we have a few extra days this week to allow the Moneylines to settle in.

Before we get to the good stuff, I wanted to thank you all for reading this site. It’s grown a lot since last year, with an email list of over 800 people. Hopefully it’s brought you some (or a lot?) of wins. If you’d like to share the wealth … >>read more>>