Week 8 NFL Confidence Pool/Pick Em Picks

Welcome to Week 8 of the NFL season! This week, I’m going back to the previous way of displaying picks as this format won 2 to 1 in the poll last week. As you may recall, I had a bad cell in my spreadsheet that made Seattle a prime upset candidate by accident. Well, as we all know, sure enough they were upset. So people who didn’t see the correction might have won their league. Sometimes two wrongs do make a right, as @Shady pointed out. Nevertheless, I don’t plan on having that issue … >>read more>>

Week 7 NFL Confidence Pool Pick Update

Here’s the Week 7 Update. The win probabilities didn’t change much, but I did a sort where if there were equal win probabilities, I sorted according to % picked (lower picked got higher confidence points). This caused GB to drop a good amount, even though their win probability didn’t change much.

Also, results of the poll indicate there’s almost a 2:1 preference for the previous color coded pick display. I’ll go back to that starting next week, and improve off that. I’d like to figure out a way to let you enter in your picks, or better yet do a … >>read more>>

Week 7 Confidence/Pick Em Picks

[Note: This post was updated at 12:30 PM EDT on Thursday October 16. I had a couple of bad cells on my spreadsheet that caused Seattle to be the wrong win probability by a lot, and a couple of other data points being off. It changes the picks substantially. I apologize for any inconvenience]

Nothing like a fresh new week to start anew!

Moneyline accuracy study: If you’re interested in getting this report before I post it on this site, make sure you’re on our email list.

An aside: As many of you know, I’m a big Packer fan. I’m … >>read more>>

How accurate are Moneyline picks?

It was a rough week for my picks at CPP. The Cowboys upset the Seahawks for 14 points and the Bengals missed a FG to tie the Panthers to lose us 12 points. All of the upset picks – Minnesota over Detroit, Atlanta over Chicago, and Buffalo over New England – did not pan out. For all of you that used this week as their first experience with this website, I hope you give us another chance!

It’s a good time to bring out a study I’ve just about completed. I took a look at the game data from last … >>read more>>

Week 6 Update – Packers drop, Minnesota favored

Here’s the Week 6 update. Green Bay has dropped a lot, and Minnesota is now favored. All the N/A’s have probabilities now…

Updated Pts Prev Pts Yahoo Order Pick Public Picked Opp Public Picked Win Prob
15 15 08 Den 99% NYJ 1% 80%
14 14 13 Sea 94% Dal 6% 77%
13 13 10 SD 98% Oak 2% 73%
12 12 03 Cin 93% Car 7% 73%
11 11 05 Ten 89% Jac 11% 65%
10 09 09 Bal 85% TB 15% 62%
09 07 15 SF 94% StL 6% 62%
08 08 11 Atl 69% Chi 31% 60%
>>read more>>