Week 12 Update

Week 12 headlines:

  • Oakland over KC would’ve been a great money pick. Anyone pick Oakland at a high pick?
  • Buffalo and the Jets are playing in Detroit this weekend, and the win probabilities have shifted a lot towards the Jets, who are now at a 43% win probability with only 13% picked. They make a really nice yellow money pick at this point. I am considering a Seattle/Jets high pick combo to try to overtake the lead (in 5th place right now overall).

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Week 12 Confidence Pool Picks

Welcome to Week 12 of the NFL season! It’s coming down the wire. For those of you who aren’t in the overall season win hunt, it’s a fun time to take some all in gambles.

Happenings from this week:

  • Most of you are probably already Confidence Pool veterans, but if not I made two videos that show how to enter in your picks using Yahoo’s Pick ‘em site using this site.
  • I also added a general discussion board. Feel free to pop over there for general discussions, especially for last second questions for our community and chatter during games.
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Base pick record and the Weekly vs Season win tradeoff

A new nuggets from the CPP community:

@gggg figured out what the base picks would have gotten you this season up to Week 10. How does that compare with your league?

W-L 101-46 Pts 838

@Ironclad posted a chart showing the trade off between going for a season win (Expected Point Total, blue) vs going for the weekly win (Prob of Weekly Win, orange), using the week 9 green Money Pick (Pittsburgh vs the Jets). Basically, you can gain 5% probability of a weekly win by trading off 1.5 total season points as you increase the confidence points you put … >>read more>>

Week 11 Update

Here’s the update for Week 11. A few of the picks have switched confidence points by a little bit. Minnesota is now a fringe yellow money pick due to its win probability increasing to 43% (public picked is still 25%, so not much help there).

Buffalo didn’t pan out as our first green money pick on Thursday night. They kept it close the first half but laid an egg the second half. Tennessee and Philly are still out there as green picks.

Just a note, I moved the win probability column to right next to the team name, and added … >>read more>>