Week 16 – Final Update

And a few more changes prior to kickoff on Sunday…

  • A bunch of games have turned green, as their win probabilities have increased a bit.
  • SF didn’t like being a money pick, so they decided to throw away the game last night in OT.

Someone in my league picked Washington all-in. Washington was just below our money picks because its win probability was only 24%. If that person is reading this site, I’m in for a challenge for this week!

Good luck to all!

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Week 16 – First update

With the Saturday games this week, I’ve offered up a bonus update. A few thing have changed:

  • Dallas has moved up to a few win probability percentage points, making them a solid blue pick this week. Must be the news that Demarco Murray is likely to play.
  • Carolina comes in at an 63% win probability, close to the 65% that I guessed based off public picks.
  • Houston edges in as a green money pick, as its public picked percentage dropped a bit and they gained a win probability point.
  • The Giants drop out of money pick status, as their win
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Week 16 Confidence Pool Picks

Welcome to Week 16! Last week, I had the opportunity to have the unique experience of attending a money pick game in person, and having it hit. Unfortunately, it was a Buffalo upset against the Packers.

My Buffalo for 14 money pick however only got me to 5th place, as my blue money pick of St. Louis for 13 didn’t hit. This was a case where I went too far by bumping up St Louis as well. However if they would have won, I would have had 1st place easily. In this case, going against Edgar’s analysis backfired:

“There’s definitely … >>read more>>

Week 15 Update

A few things have changed with Week 15:

  • SD has inched into the green money pick realm, as the public picks dropped to 13%.
  • TB is no longer a money pick, as the public has caught on to Cam Newton not playing.
  • NYJ win probability has gone up to 59%, making it a better blue money pick.

Buffalo remains another green money pick. I will be there to witness it (but I’m cheering for the Packers of course).

Good luck!



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Week 15 Confidence Pool Picks


Last week, all nine money picks whiffed. According to the probabilities, there was an 0.06% chance of that happening. So, I basically won the lottery in reverse. I guess this makes up for the week when almost all the money picks hit.

The closet one was Cleveland, who lost to Indianapolis on the final drive of the game. Watching that game, I was yelling at TV hoping it would compel them into letting Indy score so they’d have time to come back and kick a FG (there’s some articles on Advanced Football Analytics that tell you when to intentionally … >>read more>>