The big winner for Week 8 is anyone who went with Pittsburgh big as their contrarian pick. Anyone who went with New Orleans big also probably finished pretty high up. My personal pick of the Tennessee upset over Houston didn’t pan out (if only I had known my week rested on the shoulders of a guy whose name just sounds like a college backup QB).
For Confidence Pool Picks, I use the implied win probability that Moneylines give us to create the “base picks” each week. The idea is to assign higher win probabilities higher confidence values. But is Moneyline even accurate?
I wanted to put this to the test. I analyzed data from the 2013 season, and compared what Moneyline values predicted to what actually happened. To review, the Moneyline values are in the form of +150 or -300. Positive values mean you bet the value, in this case $150, to win $100. Negative values mean you bet $100 to win the value, in … >>read more>>
Welcome to Week 8 of the NFL season! This week, I’m going back to the previous way of displaying picks as this format won 2 to 1 in the poll last week. As you may recall, I had a bad cell in my spreadsheet that made Seattle a prime upset candidate by accident. Well, as we all know, sure enough they were upset. So people who didn’t see the correction might have won their league. Sometimes two wrongs do make a right, as @Shady pointed out. Nevertheless, I don’t plan on having that issue again (incidentally, I just went … >>read more>>
Here’s the Week 7 Update. The win probabilities didn’t change much, but I did a sort where if there were equal win probabilities, I sorted according to % picked (lower picked got higher confidence points). This caused GB to drop a good amount, even though their win probability didn’t change much.
Also, results of the poll indicate there’s almost a 2:1 preference for the previous color coded pick display. I’ll go back to that starting next week, and improve off that. I’d like to figure out a way to let you enter in your picks, or better yet do a … >>read more>>