Ready for 2016?

Hello everyone and welcome to the 2016 NFL season! Here’s to a profitable year for everyone playing in Confidence Pool leagues this year!

This year, base picks will be free. Some people can at least be in contention or even win a week or two with just the base picks. Money picks and other new benefits, such as picks emailed directly to you, will be premium and for members only. More to come!

If you haven’t yet, subscribe to our email list and get updates as they happen. Also, people on the email list will get a special price on … >>read more>>

Playoffs Week 3

Hello all, Conference Finals week. Not many things you can do with only 2 games left. If you are well behind, pick two upsets. If you’re ahead, pick the two favorites. Arizona is a slightly better money pick with only 27% picked and 40% win prob.

Best of luck!


>>read more>>

Playoffs Week 2

Welcome to Week 2 of the playoffs!

The best pick by far is all in on a Seattle upset of Carolina, with a 43% chance of winning but only 23% picked. If you want to take a bigger risk (although it’s not buying you much contrarian-ness), Green Bay and Pittsburgh are the upset picks. New England (69%, 68%) would be your bump up pick.

Last week I also posted a chart for expected playoff wins, calculated from implied win probabilities from Vegas odds. The updated picks are below this chart.

Here’s the chart for this week.

And here’s the … >>read more>>

Confidence Picks For All 12 Playoff Teams

Reader @bwitt30 requested my thoughts/analysis on a playoff confidence pool where you rank all 12 teams playoff teams prior to the first games. Here’s what I came up with.

I used Vegas odds to calculate an implied probability (much like the regular season picks), except for the 2nd round, which I couldn’t find any odds for. For those picks, I used simulation models from another website. I ranked the teams according to the number of wins you can expect for each team and assigned confidence points accordingly:

The data that’s missing is the “public picked” data that would give us … >>read more>>

Playoffs Week 1

PLAYOFFS? We’re talking about PLAYOFFS!

Welcome to week 1 of the NFL playoffs! It’s a different game in the playoffs, with only 4 games going on. Here are the picks:


The strategies are a bit different… There are three potential strategies:

  • Go with base picks, and potentially run the table (12% chance) and try to beat everyone on tiebreakers
  • Go with an upset all in, in this case yellow picks Minnesota or Houston.
  • Go with the bump up pick, such as the blue picks this week, Washington or GB, all in and hope for an upset somewhere.

Best of … >>read more>>