Week 4 Confidence Pool Picks

Week 4 has two natural contrarian picks: Pittsburgh over Minnesota (61% win probability for Pittsburgh but only 39% of the people picking them) and Detroit over Chicago (59%, 35%). Not as good as last week‘s contrarian picks, but pretty good nonetheless. Another interesting choice this week is Seattle with only a 57% probability over Houston, but with 79% of the people picking Seattle.

I decided to take both the Pittsburgh and Detroit picks and go up to 9 and 8 confidence points, which is about 4-5 points higher than they would’ve naturally fallen using pure Moneyline probability. So this … >>read more>>

Confidence Pool Picks – Week 3 Results

Week 3 saw my team take 3rd place in the Yahoo Pick ‘Em league. It makes me feel better that my dad took first place based off two upset picks, Bengals over Packers and KC over Philly. When I asked my dad if he used my strategy, he proudly said he went by gut feel. It also helped that he’s a die hard Cowboys fan and picked them for 14 points.

Here are the results of the first few places, my team highlighted in yellow:


Week 3 had two contrarian picks candidates, both favored teams and ~60% win probability … >>read more>>

Confidence Pool Picks – Week 3

I love having Thursday night games… it just makes us do my Yahoo PickEm picks earlier! It’s like football never ends… which I guess isn’t a bad thing.

For Week 3, there seem to be a bunch of good contrarian picks. I must admit, they do seem counter-intuitive to me. Miami favored over Atlanta? Carolina over the Giants? But the people who make the lines in Vegas have a lot more incentive to get it right than you and me, and it gives us the advantage in a Yahoo Pick em league.

Only 18% of the people picked Miami and … >>read more>>

Confidence Pool Pick – Week 2

Here are my confidence pool picks for Week 2 of the 2013 NFL Season. This week gave us a few more contrarian picks than last week, where I had to go all in with a win probability of 34% (San Diego upsetting Houston on Monday night). That ALMOST worked out as San Diego had the lead most of the game and only a Houston TD and pick 6 in the 4th quarter tied the game, with Houston pulling out a game winning FG as time ran out to drop me out of first place.

[See my Yahoo pick ’em/confidence >>read more>>