Week 9 Confidence Pool Picks

Here’s the data for this week:

I get to pick for Dad again, so two shots…This week is back to normal a bit, last week the games were very predictable, and it basically would take perfect picks to win the league. Best bet looks like Philly upset over Oakland (18% picked, 55% win probability). As expected, the ANS win probability model, which has a few weeks of Michael Vick data built into its analysis and doesn’t know he’s concussed, picked Philly a lot higher (69%). It looks like Nick Foles will start for Philly>>read more>>

Week 9 Picks

Still waiting on the Advanced NFL Stats data, but figured it’s time to get SOMETHING posted. Here are the lists of games with Moneyline win probabilities only:

Some potential upset picks are Buffalo over KC (12% chosen, 38% win probability), Miami over Cincinnati (14%, 38%), Philly over Oakland (18%, 42%), and Houston over Indy (8%, 42%). The Philly and Houston picks are interesting because they both have QB issues. The Moneyline picks take those into account; the ANS model will not. So even taking the QB situations into account, pro gamblers disagree with the general public a bit on these … >>read more>>

Week 8: Hard to beat near perfection

It’s hard to win when it takes perfection to win. As previously mentioned, this week was filled with heavy favorites and only 13 games. The winner only missed one game and was 2 points away from perfection. The only thing I can do is to go with the highest win probabilities and hope for the best! Interestingly, the winner this week’s team name was “AnIgnoramous.” Also another note… Dad finished below me. He went with a lot of upsets.

My all in pick this week was Philly over the Giants. It was puzzling to me because Philly was down … >>read more>>

Week 8 Pick Em/Confidence Pool Picks

Week 8 is interesting… there are a lot of heavy favorites this week and only 13 games. 9 of the games have win probabilities higher than 70%. The one contrarian pick that sticks out is Arizona over Atlanta (27% picked, 68% win probability). So I’m going to go all in on that game. The Philly vs NYG game is a nice supplemental pick (69%, 68%) so I’ll go up high on that one too. An intriuging game to go all in on is picking Miami over the Patriots (4%, 32%), where if you get lucky and pick the upset correctly … >>read more>>