Week 17 Confidence and Pickem picks

Last week of the regular season! I’m currently in first place overall for my league after my Week 16 picks netted me a first place finish. All without the use of the Advanced NFL Stats data.

Since this is the last week of the season, I wanted to thank everyone who came along with the ride. I hope this blog helped you with your picks and won you money (and/or bragging rights). Thanks to George and Frank who chimed in with their opinions and methods, it made me think and improved my picks as I learned throughout the season. I … >>read more>>

Week 16 Picks

I’m going to be out of pocket the next few days, so I need to get the picks in early without the benefit of Advanced NFL Stats models. I’ll only be using the Moneyline games, and I won’t have the luxury of knowing if Aaron Rodgers is playing.

Good luck! If you want, put in the ANS win probabilities in and check on Rodger’s status before you enter in your picks on Thursday.

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Week 14 Confidence Pool Picks

Couple of notes for Week 14: Green Bay vs Atlanta had no line because of the uncertainty over Aaron Rodgers. I assigned a 50/50 split for them, and it averaged out to 57%, which felt right. Rodgers practiced but wasn’t clear to play. Also, New England vs Cleveland had no Moneyline assigned to it, which I still haven’t found an answer to why. I gave it a 80% win probability based off the 11 point favorite status, which averaged out to 72%. That felt right too.

I’ve highlighted potential deep upset picks in dark green. The best one of the … >>read more>>