Week 10 Best Money Pick: Large league

Again from @Ironclad:

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I ran a retrospective study based on the poolwide picks in my 77-player league. These results are for this specific league and answer the question, What picks would have resulted in the highest probability of a weekly win in this league? This is assuming the win probabilities in the Week 10 Update table.

As with the smaller, 32-player league, NYJ would have been the best underdog pick this week. Unlike the smaller league, you have to be more aggressive, however, in order to improve your chances of winning in such a large league. SF over NO is a great pick, for example, but with 13% of people picking them (it was 9 of 77 in this league), it’s possible that others may have given them high points. So you might land the upset, but still be kept out of the money. In such a large league, you’re really looking for very low public picked percentages. Even the least likely upset (OAK over DEN at 15%) was more likely to result in a weekly win than many of Dale’s yellow and green options.

% BEST SINGLE DOG PICKS:
%
% Matchup Win % Top 3
% NYJ over PIT @16: 5.6% 17.0%
% JAC over DAL @16: 5.9% 15.4%
% CHI over GB @16: 6.2% 14.9%
% OAK over DEN @16: 7.3% 13.4%
% TEN over BAL @16: 5.8% 13.3%
%
% BEST SINGLE FAV PICKS:
%
% Matchup Win % Top 3
% KC over BUF @16: 1.1% 1.8%
% ATL over TB @16: 1.1% 1.9%
% DET over MIA @16: 1.1% 1.8%
% NOR over SF @16: 0.2% 1.3%
% PHI over CAR @16: 0.2% 0.9%
%
% BEST DOG-DOG COMBOS:
%
% Picks Win % Top 3
% MIA 16, NYJ 15: 6.2% 12.3%
% BUF 16, NYJ 15: 6.1% 12.4%
% BUF 16, JAC 15: 5.9% 12.3%
% NYJ 16, CLE 15: 7.5% 10.2%
% CHI 16, BUF 15: 6.7% 11.1%
%
% BEST FAV-FAV COMBOS:
%
% Picks Win % Top 3
% ATL 16, KC 15: 2.0% 8.6%
% KC 16, DET 15: 1.8% 7.9%
% DET 16, KC 15: 1.8% 7.8%
% DET 16, ATL 15: 2.0% 7.5%
% NOR 16, KC 15: 1.3% 5.5%

The best two-team combo pick for this large league would have been NYJ with the upset combined with ATL as a favorite bumped up to 15 points. The other moderately-picked favorites (ATL, DET, and KC were all picked in the 70’s% and had a high 50’s% chance of winning) were also good options to combine with NYJ.

% BEST DOG-FAV COMBOS:
%
% Picks Win % Top 3
% NYJ 16, ATL 15: 9.2% 17.9%
% NYJ 16, KC 15: 8.9% 17.7%
% NYJ 16, NOR 15: 7.8% 16.6%
% NYJ 16, DET 15: 8.1% 15.7%
% JAC 16, ATL 15: 7.6% 15.7%

Conclusion: In a larger league you often have to be more aggressive in picking a low-probability upset to maximize your chances of winning the league. This week, however, we had a very low pick percentage with a reasonable probability of occurring in the Jets (35% chance of winning with only 3% picking them). That single upset pick would have been excellent even in this large league. Bumping up one of the low favorites along with NYJ would also have been very good (a 9% chance of winning a 77-player league is excellent).

  • It looks like in a larger league, it’s all about going against the crowd. If there’s a low crowd pick (say under 10%) that’s the best way to get you there. If you don’t to do that, then you have to go 2 teams at max points and hope no one else picked that same combination as you.

  • Also surprised Cleveland didn’t make the upset pick

  • Ironclad

    I’m also a little surprised about Cleveland. Only 6 people picked them in my league, and only one of those gave them high points (max points, actually). I guess the combinations of everyone’s picks kept me out of the money more often in these simulations.

    By the way, the person that gave Cleveland max points in my league finished in almost last place. They picked 3 other upsets and missed on all! Again, stick with one upset if you go all in!

    • I think that’s one cardinal sin with newer Confidence League players… they pick too many upsets. I still have to convince my dad to only pick one.