Week 10 Best Money Pick: Small league

@Ironclad runs another analysis on Week 10:

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I ran a retrospective study based on the poolwide picks in my 32-player league. This is for a specific league and answers the question, What picks would have resulted in the highest probability of a weekly win in this league? This is assuming the win probabilities in the Week 10 Update table.

Start with the base picks from the Week 10 Update table. If you pick a single underdog, you should give it max points for the best chance of a weekly win. In my league, max points is 16, but the results should be similar if max points is 13.

A couple of Dale’s green picks were the best options this week. Keep in mind that this assumes that NYJ had a 35% chance of winning and SF had a 31% chance of winning. Obviously, both of those picks would have worked out! The next best picks would have looked a little more aggressive: JAC, CHI, and STL, which each had about a 25% chance of winning.

% BEST SINGLE DOG PICKS:
%
% Matchup Win % Top 3
% NYJ over PIT @16: 19.8% 32.9%
% SF over NOR @16: 17.3% 30.6%
% JAC over DAL @16: 18.3% 30.4%
% CHI over GB @16: 19.3% 27.6%
% STL over AZ @16: 18.6% 28.0%

There were not good favorite bump-up picks this week. Picking single favorites at max points is normally not as lucrative as picking a single underdog anyway:

% BEST SINGLE FAV PICKS:
%
% Matchup Win % Top 3
% KC over BUF @16: 4.7% 19.1%
% DET over MIA @16: 3.7% 14.4%
% ATL over TB @16: 2.6% 13.9%
% NOR over SF @16: 0.9% 7.5%
% DAL over JAC @16: 0.3% 4.7%

Picking two underdogs at max points is counterproductive. You are better off picking a single upset at max points:

% BEST DOG-DOG COMBOS:
%
% Picks Win % Top 3
% MIA 16, BUF 15: 14.6% 18.2%
% BUF 16, TB 15: 14.0% 18.2%
% MIA 16, TB 15: 13.1% 17.6%
% NYJ 16, BUF 15: 14.1% 15.0%
% JAC 16, BUF 15: 13.6% 14.5%

Picking two favorites at max points is better than picking a single favorite, but not as good as picking a single underdog:

% BEST FAV-FAV COMBOS:
%
% Picks Win % Top 3
% DET 16, KC 15: 12.1% 24.9%
% ATL 16, KC 15: 10.7% 25.0%
% KC 16, PHI 15: 6.7% 21.0%
% KC 16, CIN 15: 6.7% 20.7%
% KC 16, SEA 15: 4.7% 19.1%

The best options for maxing out one underdog and one favorite all involve the Jets, which was the best single-underdog option. Going with the Jets alone would have been the best move.

% BEST DOG-FAV COMBOS:
%
% Picks Win % Top 3
% NYJ 16, SEA 15: 19.5% 32.5%
% NYJ 16, BAL 15: 19.3% 32.4%
% NYJ 16, AZ 15: 18.1% 31.2%
% NYJ 16, GB 15: 17.7% 31.2%
% NYJ 16, PHI 15: 19.2% 30.0%

Conclusion: In this 32-player league, the best move would have been to give max points to the Jets, while sticking with the base picks for all the rest. This week, that move would have paid off, but even at a 35% win probability, a similar pick should land you in the money in every 1 out of 3 weeks.

Congrats to everyone who picked the Jets!

[See Edgar’s analysis of a 77-player league]

  • Stuben

    Could you make a follow up post of how the results change knowing whether you picked Cle or Cin, and how high you ranked them?

  • Ironclad

    I would like to add such a capability to evaluate conditional probabilities (given that X has occurred, what is the probability of Y occurring?). Hopefully in the coming weeks I can add that.