Week 17 Confidence Pool Update

With no Thursday or Saturday games this week, this is your best chance at using the latest data to win one more week! I will be posting playoff picks for those who have leagues that run through the playoffs. It’s a bit more of a crapshoot, with less teams and more even teams, but we’ll give it a shot.

I’d like to give a few specific thank you’s. One, to Edgar (@Ironclad) for his extensive computer simulations in estimating the best chances of winning a week vs winning for the season. Also, to the folks … >>read more>>

Week 17 Confidence Pool Picks

Merry Christmas Eve to everyone, and welcome to the final week of the regular season! I will continue this in the playoffs, but for those who sign off prior to the playoffs, just wanted to say thanks for coming along the ride this year with Confidence Pool Picks! I hope this season was fun, and most of all, profitable.

If you enjoyed this site, and especially if you were able to be in the money, share the wealth with a sponsorship/donation! Next year, I do plan on making a small portion of this site premium for a nominal fee. … >>read more>>

Week 16 – Final Update

And a few more changes prior to kickoff on Sunday…

  • A bunch of games have turned green, as their win probabilities have increased a bit.
  • SF didn’t like being a money pick, so they decided to throw away the game last night in OT.

Someone in my league picked Washington all-in. Washington was just below our money picks because its win probability was only 24%. If that person is reading this site, I’m in for a challenge for this week!

Good luck to all!

>>read more>>

Week 16 – First update

With the Saturday games this week, I’ve offered up a bonus update. A few thing have changed:

  • Dallas has moved up to a few win probability percentage points, making them a solid blue pick this week. Must be the news that Demarco Murray is likely to play.
  • Carolina comes in at an 63% win probability, close to the 65% that I guessed based off public picks.
  • Houston edges in as a green money pick, as its public picked percentage dropped a bit and they gained a win probability point.
  • The Giants drop out of money pick status, as their win
>>read more>>

Week 16 Confidence Pool Picks

Welcome to Week 16! Last week, I had the opportunity to have the unique experience of attending a money pick game in person, and having it hit. Unfortunately, it was a Buffalo upset against the Packers.

My Buffalo for 14 money pick however only got me to 5th place, as my blue money pick of St. Louis for 13 didn’t hit. This was a case where I went too far by bumping up St Louis as well. However if they would have won, I would have had 1st place easily. In this case, going against Edgar’s analysis backfired:

“There’s definitely … >>read more>>