Week 4 Confidence Pool Picks

Welcome to Week 4! Week 3 was back to normal, with 4 upsets. The unfortunate thing is we went 0-5 on money picks, so if you went all in on a game, hope it wasn’t with one of my picks! We had the best money pick in a while, with St. Louis and a 49% win probability with only 16% public picked, but they were just not able to muster enough offense to beat Pittsburgh.

In my league, I’ve been noticing a disturbing trend of not just my money picks not hitting, but if … >>read more>>

Week 3 Confidence Pool Picks

Week 3 is upon us! Week 2 brought us no less than 10 upsets, which means our base picks didn’t do so well.

Total points if you stuck with base picks from last week: 43

I ended up in the money, but only because I screwed up. The good news is, getting so many upsets isn’t very likely. On average, you’ll get 1/3 upsets, or about 5 in a typical 16 team week. So we don’t have to feel too bad about doing bad in a week with 10 upsets. It’s really hard to pick 1 upset right, much … >>read more>>

My “OFF” mistake

Last week, I had my picks all ready to go… Decided to with Washington all-in as my money pick. Made my picks, just like in the instructional video, clicking down the Favored column, except for Washington, which I flipped and picked 16:

2015-09-22_2335

But alas, there is a mistake here… Can anyone spot it?

2015-09-22_2337

Oakland wasn’t actually the pick! Base picks was supposed to be Baltimore for 14 (I moved them down to 11 because I was implementing the round and then reverse win prob method). The Oakland and Baltimore game was officially listed as “Off” on Yahoo Pick ‘Em, … >>read more>>

2015 Week 2 Confidence Picks

Welcome to Week 2 of the NFL season… Hope your week 1 was fruitful! St. Louis and Buffalo came through for our money picks, while Jacksonville, Baltimore, and Minnesota didn’t.

>>read more>>

2015 Week 1 Confidence Pool Picks

Welcome back everyone, and welcome to all the new people who found this site for the 2015 season! Had a great time last year, and learned a lot, and hopefully we can make this season a profitable one for all! I’ve almost gotten over the terrible loss to the Seahawks last year (for the new people on the site, you will find out I’m a die hard Packer fan) and I’m looking forward to opening with the beloved Chicago Bears this week. Shout out to all the people from Chicago on this site!

I tried to keep most of the … >>read more>>