2014 Retro Analysis – Magic number and Moneyline accuracy

It’s a new season! And with that, I took a look at the results from the 2014 season with two questions to answer:

  1. How well would you have done sticking to base picks and no “Money” picks?
  2. How accurate are the Moneyline implied win probabilities?

[Review what Money picks and Moneyline implied win probabilities are]

Recall I ran the same analysis in 2013, and got 1456 total points with base picks only.  Also, the Moneyline implied win probabilities were pretty accurate. For this year,  going with only base picks would’ve gotten you:

Total Base Pick Points: 1488

How would you have ended up in your league last year with 1488 points?

The analysis of Moneyline win probability versus actual win percentage showed that the Moneyline probabilities were pretty accurate.

The top and the bottom of the chart are a little messy because there are only a few games with over 90% or near 50% win probabilities, but the middle of the chart shows that the Moneyline implied win probabilities are pretty accurate:

With this info, we can be pretty confident that the Moneyline data is the way to go. Also, if 1488 was good enough to win your league (and there’s a payout for overall win), you might want to stick with more base picks. If it wasn’t close, then you’re going to want to take bigger weekly risks and forgo the overall win.