Week 17 Confidence Pool Picks

Welcome to Week 17, the final week of the season! Hope it’s been a profitable year for all of you, and I hope a bunch of you are going for a season win!

Last week, Jacksonville finally pulled one out for me. But I ended up in 8th place because of too many big upsets.

Base pick score from last week: 78

How did you do in week 17?

Before we move on to this week’s picks, would love to hear some feedback for next year:

What features would you like to see next year?

There are no games this week until Sunday. I will probably do one update on Saturday.

Base picks for this week:

Updated Saturday 10:58 PM Eastern



Updated Saturday 10:58 PM Eastern

Green picks: Again, Jacksonville is the best green pick. They came through for me last week! Can they make it two in a row? SD, Cleveland (two in a row too?), LA, and NO are other green picks. Update Saturday: Same green picks in Cleveland, Jax, and SD, with LA and NO slightly worse.

Yellow picks: We have a great yellow-ish pick in Cincinnati this week, with a 55% win prob but only 28% picked. Oakland, NYJ, and Detroit are other yellow picks. Update Saturday: Cincy has gotten a little worse, but still pretty solid yellow pick. Not much change in the other picks. 

Blue picks:  We have some great ones this week. Washington is only 67% picked, but already at a base pick of 14 so not much room to bump there. Philly is another good pick, with only 32% picked and 64% win prob. Tennessee rounds it out. Update Saturday: The blue picks have gotten better, as it appears the teams that they’re playing against have nothing to play for. 

If you’re in the lead or close to a season win, it may be a good week to stick with base picks. There seems to be natural contrarianess out there among the favorites. There may be a lot of random games this week because there are games that don’t count towards anything.

Best of luck this week! If you haven’t yet, please join our email list so we can get going again next year. Hoping to get more features going, and moving to a faster host so the site loads faster. I’ll also be doing playoff picks and working on some analysis to see how good our strategy was, so stick around for that!

As usual, take a victory lap in the comments if you won last week or are close to being in the money for the season!

Update Saturday: It turns out I’m in the finals in a knockout against the spread confidence league. Maybe my beta ATS strategy has some merit? I share it in a future post. Make sure you’re on the email list!

  • Frank Vitale

    If all u r going to do is take favorites according to the spread what info r u giving. anyone can do that!

    • Those are the base picks, and I’m using the Moneyline probabilities which should be more accurate. What helps are the % picked data that shows you which teams to bump up/down or go all in on.

      • Kyle


        Have you considered what many might call a motivation factor as Week 17 is typically a weird week? Example; Dallas, it doesn’t matter if they win or lose as they get a first round bye. I’m in 3rd place of my league and could easily fall out of the money based on this week so I’m using some of my own considerations too. Appreciate the time and effort that you already put into the site as it is and look forward to your thoughts. Thanks

        • Hey Kyle, the Vegas moneylines should reflect what they know about motivation… That’s probably why Washington is so high. Let’s see what the Saturday update looks like.

    • Lunchbox

      Let’s see you do it, then.

      Didn’t think so…there’s a reason why this blog has done well over the years. Read the “strategy” link at the top.

  • Jason Ruchel

    Got 14 of 16 picks correct this week using all 3 blue picks, a green pick, and a yellow. Would have been 1st in my 300 person league if Jacksonville could have held on to win! Ugh oh so close. Already seeing the strategy play out well, cant wait for next season!

    • Congrats @Jason! Damn Jacksonville. This is where you want so bad to go against the numbers.