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My “OFF” mistake

Last week, I had my picks all ready to go… Decided to with Washington all-in as my money pick. Made my picks, just like in the instructional video, clicking down the Favored column, except for Washington, which I flipped and picked 16:

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But alas, there is a mistake here… Can anyone spot it?

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Oakland wasn’t actually the pick! Base picks was supposed to be Baltimore for 14 (I moved them down to 11 because I was implementing the round and then reverse win prob method). The Oakland and Baltimore game was officially listed as … >>read more>>

2014 Retro Analysis – Magic number and Moneyline accuracy

It’s a new season! And with that, I took a look at the results from the 2014 season with two questions to answer:

  1. How well would you have done sticking to base picks and no “Money” picks?
  2. How accurate are the Moneyline implied win probabilities?

[Review what Money picks and Moneyline implied win probabilities are]

Recall I ran the same analysis in 2013, and got 1456 total points with base picks only.  Also, the Moneyline implied win probabilities were pretty accurate. For this year,  going with only base picks would’ve gotten you:

Total Base Pick Points: 1488>>read more>>

Base pick record and the Weekly vs Season win tradeoff

A new nuggets from the CPP community:

@gggg figured out what the base picks would have gotten you this season up to Week 10. How does that compare with your league?

W-L 101-46 Pts 838

@Ironclad posted a chart showing the trade off between going for a season win (Expected Point Total, blue) vs going for the weekly win (Prob of Weekly Win, orange), using the week 9 green Money Pick (Pittsburgh vs the Jets). Basically, you can gain 5% probability of a weekly win by trading off 1.5 total season points as you increase the confidence points you put … >>read more>>

Week 10 Best Money Pick: Small league

@Ironclad runs another analysis on Week 10:

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I ran a retrospective study based on the poolwide picks in my 32-player league. This is for a specific league and answers the question, What picks would have resulted in the highest probability of a weekly win in this league? This is assuming the win probabilities in the Week 10 Update table.

Start with the base picks from the Week 10 Update table. If you pick a single underdog, you should give it max points for the best chance of a weekly win. In my league, max points is 16, but the … >>read more>>

Week 10 Best Money Pick: Large league

Again from @Ironclad:

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I ran a retrospective study based on the poolwide picks in my 77-player league. These results are for this specific league and answer the question, What picks would have resulted in the highest probability of a weekly win in this league? This is assuming the win probabilities in the Week 10 Update table.

As with the smaller, 32-player league, NYJ would have been the best underdog pick this week. Unlike the smaller league, you have to be more aggressive, however, in order to improve your chances of winning in such a large league. SF over … >>read more>>