Week 11 Results – In the money!

We’re in the money! Dad took second place after my two all in contrarian picks panned out, capped off by Carolina defeating the Patriots on the controversial non-pass interference call (although it was the right call). On Sunday, Buffalo had beaten the Jets for the other pick.

As for my picks, I was a Tennessee win from taking first place. Unfortunately, the Colts came back to win by 3 points. My team ended up out of the money.


My results:

Dad’s results:


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Week 11 Confidence Pool Picks

Week 11 has three very good contrarian picks. The Tennessee over Indianapolis pick is about as good of a contrarian pick as you can get. Only 8% picked Tennessee with a 9.6 average pick, and they have a 54% chance of winning.

Not much time for banter today, running late! Here are my picks. Need Carolina over New England for both my dad and I, for me also need Tennessee over Indy:


Dad needs Buffalo over the Jets:



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Who should I root for? Now I know

Like a fantasy league, being in a Confidence Pick Em league makes you watch games you typically wouldn’t care about. Unlike a fantasy league, you are actually rooting for a team to win instead of individual players. When I’m scoreboard watching or finding a game to watch on Sunday, I find myself trying to figure out which team to root for. It’s not always the team you picked; if most of the league picked that team very high and you picked them low, you actually want that team to lose. You also have certain games that matter a lot more … >>read more>>

Week 10 Picks: Go big or go home

Two shots again this week. Here are the baseline picks by win probability:

I’ve highlighted a few in green that are potential contrarian picks. The Giants vs Oakland is a great secondary pick… although 87% picked them to win, they only picked them at 6.6 confidence despite a 77% win probability. Cincinnati vs Baltimore has the same situation if you believe the Advanced NFL Stats model. However, no good primary “people’s upset” picks stick out this week. Best we can do is Minnesota over Washington (25% picked, 44% win prob) and Buffalo over Pittsburgh (30%, 44%).  A couple big upset … >>read more>>