Week 7 Results: Winner winner, chicken dinner!

It was a great Week 7 for the Ting family:


(My dad is a retired Miller Brewing hops chemist, hence the name). This was the last week I’d get to pick for Dad, and it’s nice to be validated. Although you could say we probably should’ve hedged a bit, since winning first and second in one week isn’t as good as winning first it two separate weeks.

For Dad, the key all-in game panned out, which was Washington over Chicago. RGIII led a game winning drive in the early game to give us a shot at winning the week. … >>read more>>

Week 7 Confidence Pool/Pick Em Picks

OK, Advanced NFL Stats data is in. Here’s the chart, using an average between ANS and ML win probabilities:

One major difference with ANS and Moneyline is that ANS has the Jets over the Patriots. Brian Burke, who created ANS, talks about this in his article this week. This could definitely be a contrarian pick candidate.

This week, there is this one rare no brainer pick… Carolina all in over St. Louis. ANS, Moneyline, and conventional wisdom suggest Carolina to win, but yet 22% of the crowd picked St. Louis. The Giants over Minnesota has something similar. Therefore, I will … >>read more>>

Week 7 Confidence Pool/Pick Em – Preliminary picks

This week, I’m going to bump up two teams to the top again who are contrarian or semi-contrarian picks. This is also the last week I get Dad’s picks, so hopefully we can win one this week. Here are the baseline picks (Advanced NFL Stats data forthcoming):

Based on Moneyline data, there are three “people’s upsets” (in green) and three where there are relatively high win probabilities but a decent percentage of people picking the other way (in blue). Tomorrow, the ANS model picks should be out and I will confirm my selections then. Meanwhile, the games in green are … >>read more>>

Week 6 Pick Em Results

This week, both of my “all-in” picks were correct… yet I still ended up in the middle of the pack. Both Carolina and San Diego came through with the people’s upset. The second place team didn’t use any practical strategy, he/she just went 15 for the first game, 14 for the second game, on down the line to 1. There’s really no strategy to go against no strategy, other than let the percentages play out.

The game that killed me this week was the Pittsburgh vs NYJ game. The Jets had a 58-63% win probability, but only 57% of … >>read more>>