Week 6: Advanced NFL Stats Update

Update after the Advanced NFL stats win probabilities came out:


The ANS model picks New England over New Orleans. So I’m going to bail on New England as my all in pick and go with Carolina over Minnesota, and hedging Indy over SD a bit since I’m going to keep my dad’s all in pick for SD over Indy:

As I mentioned, Dad will be staying with SD over Indy. Also hedging a bit for Minnesota (since I picked Carolina big for myself):

Here we go! This week, we are big Chargers, Panthers, and Jets fans!

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Week 6: Pick Em and Confidence Pool Picks

Week 6 features an almost 100% chance that Denver with beat Jacksonville. Interesting. Definitely not going contrarian with this game!

Here are this week’s picks based on Moneyline (I’ll check back in later when I find out the Advanced NFL Stats model picks). There’s one good contrarian pick here, that’s New England vs New Orleans (57% win, 28% picked). Guess losing the the Bengals last week was enough to scare people away! Two other candidates are Indianapolis vs SD (which was a “Pick Em” game, i.e 50/50 shot, but only 17% picked SD), and a mild one with the Jets … >>read more>>

Confidence Picks: Week 5 Results

This week was painful. The Bengal’s “People’s upset” over the Patriots came true as Tom Brady got picked off to seal a Cincinnati 13-6 victory and break his streak of touchdown pass games at 52, 2 short of Drew Brees’s record. However, it did nothing to help my cause as I ended up in 15th place with 66 points. Top teams had 79, 77, and 74 points. The pick I made for my dad, the Tennessee upset over Kansas City, didn’t pan out. He ended up way down the list.

Two games, if they swung differently, would’ve netted me … >>read more>>

Update: Week 5 – Dad’s pick with ANS data

For the first 4 weeks, I’ve used Moneyline probabilities for wins. I also really like using Advanced NFL Stats Win Probability model. It’s based off data, versus public perception, which has its pros and cons. The ANS probability model for week 5 just came through.

What this does is add some colors to my tables… I put blue as ANS “People’s Upset” pick, yellow as Moneyline ones, and green are both ANS and Moneyline “People’s Upset” picks. Both showed Cincinnati over NE as a people’s upset, so I’m going to stick with that for my pick. For my … >>read more>>

Dad gone = extra pick! – Week 5 Confidence Pool Picks

My dad is out of town. What does that have to do with you? Well it means an extra pick for me to play with! Dad turned his pick over to me, so I get to try TWO strategies instead of one.

Week 5 of the NFL season gives us two interesting contrarian picks… Like Week 3, these picks feel REALLY wrong. However, in Week 3, it turned out the Vegas moneylines were right… The two wrong-feeling picks this week are Cincinnati (54% win probability, 25% picked) over New England (gasp! picking against Tom Brady?) and Chicago (50% … >>read more>>