Week 3 saw my team take 3rd place in the Yahoo Pick ‘Em league. It makes me feel better that my dad took first place based off two upset picks, Bengals over Packers and KC over Philly. When I asked my dad if he used my strategy, he proudly said he went by gut feel. It also helped that he’s a die hard Cowboys fan and picked them for 14 points.
Here are the results of the first few places, my team highlighted in yellow:
Week 3 had two contrarian picks candidates, both favored teams and ~60% win probability … >>read more>>
I love having Thursday night games… it just makes us do my Yahoo PickEm picks earlier! It’s like football never ends… which I guess isn’t a bad thing.
For Week 3, there seem to be a bunch of good contrarian picks. I must admit, they do seem counter-intuitive to me. Miami favored over Atlanta? Carolina over the Giants? But the people who make the lines in Vegas have a lot more incentive to get it right than you and me, and it gives us the advantage in a Yahoo Pick em league.
Only 18% of the people picked Miami and … >>read more>>
Here are my confidence pool picks for Week 2 of the 2013 NFL Season. This week gave us a few more contrarian picks than last week, where I had to go all in with a win probability of 34% (San Diego upsetting Houston on Monday night). That ALMOST worked out as San Diego had the lead most of the game and only a Houston TD and pick 6 in the 4th quarter tied the game, with Houston pulling out a game winning FG as time ran out to drop me out of first place.
[See my Yahoo pick ’em/confidence … >>read more>>
Last post, I introduced my Pick ‘Em strategy. My contrarian pick was the Philadelphia beating Baltimore, which I set at 16 points because only 16% of the population picked Philly to win despite them being favored by 3 points. I got to watch Michael Vick take the Eagles down the field and cap it off with TD run to win 23-22 as time ran out. Here’s how it turned out (click to enlarge, my team is the yellow box):
After the Falcons took care of business on Monday night against Denver, I ended up in first place. Woohoo! What … >>read more>>
[This post has moved, please click here for the most updated version]
Picking in a confidence pool league or Yahoo Pick Em League with confidence points involves two things: accuracy and contrarian-ness. Accuracy is picking the right team to win and putting the right confidence level to it. However, it’s virtually impossible to pick all the teams right. If it were easy, we wouldn’t need to care for the second part of the equation: contrarian-ness. To be a contrarian is to be someone who goes the opposite way; someone who zigs when others zag. If you pick the … >>read more>>