Last post, I introduced my Pick ‘Em strategy. My contrarian pick was the Philadelphia beating Baltimore, which I set at 16 points because only 16% of the population picked Philly to win despite them being favored by 3 points. I got to watch Michael Vick take the Eagles down the field and cap it off with TD run to win 23-22 as time ran out. Here’s how it turned out (click to enlarge, my team is the yellow box):
After the Falcons took care of business on Monday night against Denver, I ended up in first place. Woohoo! What a great week to start posting about my Pick ‘Em strategy. One interesting thing to notice, and why this method works to some degree, is a big upset doesn’t hurt you. Notice NE was upset by the Cardinals despite being double digit favorites; however, everyone else picked NE too, and at high points to boot. The milder upsets also didn’t hurt me as much because I had lower confidence points assigned to them. So it was a wash for me. Then, the Philly win gave me a big boost; as you see, most everyone else picked Baltimore to win. Basically, I’m betting the whole week on one game: Philly vs Baltimore, where Philly was favored by 3. If you can boil down to one game helping you win or lose the week, you’re basically saying it’s a 50/50 shot to win the week. I’ll take that every time.
Week 3 picks up shortly!