Week 8 is interesting… there are a lot of heavy favorites this week and only 13 games. 9 of the games have win probabilities higher than 70%. The one contrarian pick that sticks out is Arizona over Atlanta (27% picked, 68% win probability). So I’m going to go all in on that game. The Philly vs NYG game is a nice supplemental pick (69%, 68%) so I’ll go up high on that one too. An intriuging game to go all in on is picking Miami over the Patriots (4%, 32%), where if you get lucky and pick the upset correctly you’ll beat 96% of the people.
I added the average confidence picks for the public, which is available on the Yahoo Pick Em site. It actually gives a lot of good insight because it tells you what value people are assigning and not just who they’re picking. The most interesting one is the Detroit vs Dallas, which is about a 50/50 split in picking the winner but the ones that do pick Detroit are picking them for 9 points. So that game becomes a key game to pick correctly. Knowing this is good; in the future I hope to use this in my analysis.
Base picks (sorted by win probability):