Week 13 Confidence Pool Pick Em Picks – A slight change in strategy

Last week, I belatedly found out how the payouts were divided. @Frank was telling me that I was taking too much risk in my “all-in” picks, but I was trying to win the weekly game instead of trying to win the overall season picks. I found out what the payouts were this week: the overall points winner wins more than 5 times the weekly game winner. So basically, it makes sense for me to go for maximum points for the season instead of the weekly win; so I won’t be going all in as much, only choosing good opportunities to bump the confidence up a bit when going contrarian.… >>read more>>

Week 12 Results – My first oops

Week 12 showed a lot of bloodshed; six underdogs won, including a 10 point underdog (Jacksonville) and a 9 point underdog (Tampa). My Green Bay Packers under Matt Flynn “To Win” Tie ended up tying the Vikings, meaning everyone loses. My dad’s all in pick of SD over KC panned out… but in my haste, I did not enter his pick into the Yahoo league! I guess it’s good he ended up out of the money, and he’s not in the running for overall #1 points scored either. I ended up with 46 points, and Dad with 54. Had Flynn been able to pull it out – and I remembered to enter in his picks – he would’ve been in the money.… >>read more>>

Week 12 Picks

There’s been some great discussions on the comments the last few weeks. Thanks to @GM and @Frank for contributing. @Frank has questioned the all-in strategy, and I have some new information about how our league pays out that supports his thinking.

Here’s the data for this week’s picks.

Note I did not count ANS’s 83% probability for the Packers; one thing about a mathematical model is it doesn’t know that Aaron Rodgers is out. And as a Packer fan, I know that is pretty important to consider. The Moneyline gambler folks know Aaron Rodgers is out, so I’ll go with their pick.… >>read more>>