Last week, I belatedly found out how the payouts were divided. @Frank was telling me that I was taking too much risk in my “all-in” picks, but I was trying to win the weekly game instead of trying to win the overall season picks. I found out what the payouts were this week: the overall points winner wins more than 5 times the weekly game winner. So basically, it makes sense for me to go for maximum points for the season instead of the weekly win; so I won’t be going all in as much, only choosing good opportunities to bump the confidence up a bit when going contrarian.… >>read more>>
Week 12 showed a lot of bloodshed; six underdogs won, including a 10 point underdog (Jacksonville) and a 9 point underdog (Tampa). My Green Bay Packers under Matt Flynn “
To Win” Tie ended up tying the Vikings, meaning everyone loses. My dad’s all in pick of SD over KC panned out… but in my haste, I did not enter his pick into the Yahoo league! I guess it’s good he ended up out of the money, and he’s not in the running for overall #1 points scored either. I ended up with 46 points, and Dad with 54. Had Flynn been able to pull it out – and I remembered to enter in his picks – he would’ve been in the money.… >>read more>>
There’s been some great discussions on the comments the last few weeks. Thanks to @GM and @Frank for contributing. @Frank has questioned the all-in strategy, and I have some new information about how our league pays out that supports his thinking.
Here’s the data for this week’s picks.
Note I did not count ANS’s 83% probability for the Packers; one thing about a mathematical model is it doesn’t know that Aaron Rodgers is out. And as a Packer fan, I know that is pretty important to consider. The Moneyline gambler folks know Aaron Rodgers is out, so I’ll go with their pick.… >>read more>>