And we’re down to the final four… Here are the probabilites:
Had an interesting discussion with @Terry. He’s in first place, with the 2nd place team 4 points back 3rd place 18 points back. Confidence points are 16 and 8. What do you do? Simplest answer: pick the favorites. When you’re winning, you go with the lowest risk strategy.
This is similar to a Final Jeopardy match when one person has the lead, but it’s not a runaway as the second place team has a little bit less, and the third place team has less than half. If you answer the question right, you win.… >>read more>>
It’s time for Week 2! Last week, I talked about how bad of an upset pick SD over Cincinnati would be… and of course SD pulled it off. I guess 25% probability events happen… uh… 25% of the time. Week 2 has a little less parity, which also means more chances for bigger upsets.
Basically all the “dark green” risky upset options are close, I picked NO because they represent the highest win probability amongst upsets (30%) with a low percentage of people picking them. The Advanced NFL Stats article this week agrees, saying NO is one of the unlucky teams in the playoffs.… >>read more>>
The playoffs are a different animal. Only four games, and lots of parity. Cincinnati has the highest win probability at 75%, so they’d be the consensus top confidence pick for this week. If you’re desperate for an upset, the SD pick would be it… but it’s only 25% so not a great one.
The GB vs SF game is most interesting. GB is a home team underdog, playing in freezing cold temps. Here’s a good place to separate yourself from the pack (no pun intended) with either the GB or SF pick. It’s basically 50/50 but only 36% of the people picked the Packers.… >>read more>>