Confidence Pool Picks: Superbowl Edition

Here we go… the last game of the season. It’s a doozy, the Advanced NFL Stats model gives it a perfect 50/50 split:

Most people are picking Omaha Denver, but the odds are very close. This would be a great time to go with the Seattle upset. However, in a situation when you’re up less than the number of points available, it gets really interesting. I’ve been conversing with @Terry, who’s in the last game leading by 4 with the last game counting for 16 points. Here’s the situation:

Assuming it’s a 50/50 chance either team wins, “Me” has a 75% chance of winning.… >>read more>>