NCAA Bracket Edition: Using CPP principles for March Madness

I tried to run some similar analyses to help fill out my March Madness bracket as what I do for the NFL confidence pools. Basically, I found some win probabilities (thanks to Nate Silver’s site, fivethirtyeight.com) and paired them up with what the public is picking (which I found on Yahoo’s version of the picks). Here’s what I found. The green highlighted picks are teams that have a pretty good probability of winning but not many people are picking them (so don’t choose these teams for upsets) and the yellow ones are lower win probabilities, but high in relation to the number of people pick them.… >>read more>>