A week 4 update shows an higher win probability for Atlanta over Minnesota. I wondered in the previous post why ATL was so low on the list, but they get bumped up to 7 points for the week. There’s a change you might want to make for this week, as it was previously listed as 3 points. If you’re looking for an upset pick, you can still go with Minnesota as only 6% of the people picked them, but the win probability for them has decreased to 37%. The NYJ are still the best upset pick with a 46% win probability but only 17% of the people picking them.… >>read more>>
Week 4 is upon us! This week features two hot upset picks for you to gain some ground on your competition. Atlanta only has an implied win probability of 59%, but over 94% of the people are picking them. I’m curious as to why, since their opponent, the Vikings, are without Adrian Peterson and Matt Cassel. The other pick is the New York Jets over the Lions, in which the Jets are basically 50/50 win probability vs Detroit but only 17% of the people are picking them.
It also gives me great pleasure to name the Packers as a bump up candidate against the Chicago Bears (Bears fans feel free to trash talk in the comments).… >>read more>>
Hello all, just ran through the picks with the updated Moneyline values. There were a few minor changes.
The Atlanta over TB blowout worked out well, as the baseline picks had them at a confidence level of 11.