The big winner for Week 8 is anyone who went with Pittsburgh big as their contrarian pick. Anyone who went with New Orleans big also probably finished pretty high up. My personal pick of the Tennessee upset over Houston didn’t pan out (if only I had known my week rested on the shoulders of a guy whose name just sounds like a college backup QB).
I also published a post that showed what I came up with when I looked at data from last year to see if Moneyline and other picks were accurate. It was first made available to members of the CPP email list (you can still sign up for the email list by clicking on one of the blue buttons).… >>read more>>
For Confidence Pool Picks, I use the implied win probability that Moneylines give us to create the “base picks” each week. The idea is to assign higher win probabilities higher confidence values. But is Moneyline even accurate?
I wanted to put this to the test. I analyzed data from the 2013 season, and compared what Moneyline values predicted to what actually happened. To review, the Moneyline values are in the form of +150 or -300. Positive values mean you bet the value, in this case $150, to win $100. Negative values mean you bet $100 to win the value, in this case $300.… >>read more>>
A few changes since the last post on Wednesday.
- Detroit is no longer a bump up pick since 79% of the people now are picking them.
- Cincinnati now looks like a better bump up pick than Arizona and Tampa
- The Jets remain as a bump up pick.
… >>read more>>