We have a flip… Baltimore is now favored over Pittsburgh, with the win probability increasing to 54%. This makes it an even better Money pick, with only 29% of the people picking them. Dallas has technically increased its Money pick worthiness, however Tony Romo is a game time decision so this may not be the one to push unless you can get the news first. Or if i you think Brandon Weeden is just as good as Romo, which I’m sure many frustrated Cowboy fans feel.
There’s been a spirited discussion with @Frank about the validity of using the “all-in” strategy on an upset pick. I’m of the opinion that it depends on how many people are in your league and the quality of the picks they make. If there’s a lot of them, and they fall in line with Yahoo’s public picks, you need to go hard contrarian if you’re looking to win the week. It’s better to stick close to base picks in the longer run, if you’re going for the season win. However, if you’re finding yourself just out of the money either weekly or overall, you’ll want to deviate from the crowd. How much depends on the league, something you might want to feel out.
The blue picks are mild contrarian picks with decent win probabilities, the green are major contrarian picks with win probabilities around 40% or higher, and the yellow are in between. If you want to take a bigger chance, go high and green. If you want to take a smaller chance, bump up blue or yellow.