Week 4 Confidence Pool Picks

Welcome to Week 4! Week 3 was back to normal, with 4 upsets. The unfortunate thing is we went 0-5 on money picks, so if you went all in on a game, hope it wasn’t with one of my picks! We had the best money pick in a while, with St. Louis and a 49% win probability with only 16% public picked, but they were just not able to muster enough offense to beat Pittsburgh.

In my league, I’ve been noticing a disturbing trend of not just my money picks not hitting, but if they do hit I would not have won anyway.… >>read more>>

Week 3 Confidence Pool Picks

Week 3 is upon us! Week 2 brought us no less than 10 upsets, which means our base picks didn’t do so well.

Total points if you stuck with base picks from last week: 43

I ended up in the money, but only because I screwed up. The good news is, getting so many upsets isn’t very likely. On average, you’ll get 1/3 upsets, or about 5 in a typical 16 team week. So we don’t have to feel too bad about doing bad in a week with 10 upsets. It’s really hard to pick 1 upset right, much less a whole bunch.… >>read more>>

My “OFF” mistake

Last week, I had my picks all ready to go… Decided to with Washington all-in as my money pick. Made my picks, just like in the instructional video, clicking down the Favored column, except for Washington, which I flipped and picked 16:

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But alas, there is a mistake here… Can anyone spot it?

2015-09-22_2337

Oakland wasn’t actually the pick! Base picks was supposed to be Baltimore for 14 (I moved them down to 11 because I was implementing the round and then reverse win prob method). The Oakland and Baltimore game was officially listed as “Off” on Yahoo Pick ‘Em, and Oakland was randomly listed under the “Favorite” column.… >>read more>>