2015 Week 2 Confidence Picks

Welcome to Week 2 of the NFL season… Hope your week 1 was fruitful! St. Louis and Buffalo came through for our money picks, while Jacksonville, Baltimore, and Minnesota didn’t.

Total points if you stuck with base picks from last week: 104

That 104 points would’ve gotten me tied for 10th place…  out of the money. The top score in my league this week was 122, but the person made 5 upset picks and hit on 4 of them. That’s not easy to do. This year, I hope to have more data on what if scenarios like this, which I will provide in the “premium” benefits once those are ready.

And now on to Week 2… Had to hold off a bit because Derek Carr’s injury status was causing the Oakland vs Baltimore line to be “off” but as of today there is a line. Here’s the chart for week 2:

Green picks:

Washington, with a 38% win probability and 9% picked is the best one of the bunch.  After that, there’s a whole mess of teams led by SF at 30% and 10% picked. Jacksonville and Oakland are also good picks to try to go all in on.

Yellow picks:

As of now, there is one really good yellow pick, and that’s Buffalo with a whopping 51% win probaBILLaty (see what I did there?) with 29% picked. The 29% is a bit high for a contrarian pick, but the win prob is really good. They do seem to have the Patriot’s number don’t they?

Chicago (46%, 25%) and Johnny Football Cleveland (49%, 25%) are other yellow picks.

Blue picks:

No blue picks this week, the one that would’ve been a blue pick had it not been promoted to a yellow pick is the Buffalo vs NE matchup.

There’s a really neat model that the site WinThatPool.com created to help identify the “money” pick for the week. I entered in my league’s info, and it popped out with Washington as the all-in pick.

Good luck this week! As usual, happy to hear discussion in the comments section below. Let the world know how you fared last with with which strategy!

[Corrected base points to 104 – 9/16/2015]