Playoffs Week 3

Hello all, Conference Finals week. Not many things you can do with only 2 games left. If you are well behind, pick two upsets. If you’re ahead, pick the two favorites. Arizona is a slightly better money pick with only 27% picked and 40% win prob.

Best of luck!

 … >>read more>>

Playoffs Week 2

Welcome to Week 2 of the playoffs!

The best pick by far is all in on a Seattle upset of Carolina, with a 43% chance of winning but only 23% picked. If you want to take a bigger risk (although it’s not buying you much contrarian-ness), Green Bay and Pittsburgh are the upset picks. New England (69%, 68%) would be your bump up pick.

Last week I also posted a chart for expected playoff wins, calculated from implied win probabilities from Vegas odds. The updated picks are below this chart.

Here’s the chart for this week.

And here’s the updated chart for expected wins:

The biggest mover is Kansas City, which after beating Houston soundly seem to become a Vegas favorite.… >>read more>>

Confidence Picks For All 12 Playoff Teams

Reader @bwitt30 requested my thoughts/analysis on a playoff confidence pool where you rank all 12 teams playoff teams prior to the first games. Here’s what I came up with.

I used Vegas odds to calculate an implied probability (much like the regular season picks), except for the 2nd round, which I couldn’t find any odds for. For those picks, I used simulation models from another website. I ranked the teams according to the number of wins you can expect for each team and assigned confidence points accordingly:

The data that’s missing is the “public picked” data that would give us our money picks.… >>read more>>