2018 Week 1 Confidence Pool Picks

Updated Wednesday 8 PM ET

Welcome to Week 1 of the 2018 season everyone! On Tuesdays, I will post the “First Look” picks with no write-up. On Wednesday, I will update it with the full write-up. I hope to add Thursday and Saturday updates down the road, but at this point I will focus on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Here are the free Base Picks for Week 1: (updated to correct wrong table)


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Updated Wed 8 PM ET

Green Picks (Higher risk picks, going for the weekly win or a fast start): 1. Cleveland 2. SF, Houston, NYJ

The Cleveland Browns! If you think about it, it’s a great risky pick even without the numbers. A team that goes 0-16 last year and retools itself to be mediocre this year will probably be underrated. In this case, a 34% win probability with only 8% picked.  

Yellow Picks (Medium risk picks): 1. Miami, Washington. 2. Dallas

The Dolphins and Washington are about 50% win probabilities with only 25% picked. 

Blue Picks (Low risk picks, move them up if you want to take some risk but not too much): 1. Denver 2. LA Clippers Chargers

Take more risk (go higher on money picks and more yellow/green picks) if:

  • Going for weekly win
  • Bigger leagues
  • Experienced leagues
  • Less teams playing (lots of teams on bye)
  • Lower overall win probabilities

Take less risk (stick with base picks) if:

  • Going for a overall season win 
  • Smaller leagues (30 or less)
  • Less experienced leagues
  • All 16 teams playing
  • Higher overall win probabilities

You’ll need a couple weeks to get a feel for how much risk you’ll need to take.

My Pick: I think the Cleveland money pick is too enticing to pass up. With it being early in the season, the win probabilities are pretty low. I’ll take Cleveland for 16 and slot the rest down. 

If you need a little refresher, or are using these picks for the first time, check out these posts: