2018 Week 9 Confidence Pool Picks – Premium

Week 8 Base Pick Points: 92

Season Base Pick Points: 713

Rough week for the money picks last week, as none of them hit. TB almost pulled it off behind Ryan Fitzmagic but alas it wasn’t meant to be. I stuck with mostly base picks, and still am able to keep my first place overall ranking. 

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Here are the picks for Week 9:

Updated Wed 2:00 PM ET

We have a special guest poster today, Alex, who did a thorough analysis of the money picks for this week. Here they are:

Blue Picks:

Washington Redskins:  The Washington Redskins have been a solid team this year, beating quality teams consistently. The Falcons however have been the opposite, struggling to get ahead when facing quality football teams and cutting it close recently against lower tier teams winning by only 8 combined points against the Buccaneers and Giants. The Redskins at home are a good safe pick that can still put you ahead of many players this week as they are being picked 52%.
 
New Orleans Saints:  The Saints have been undefeated this season after losing an upset game in week 1 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their offense in the past 2 week have been able to overpower proven tough defenses like the Ravens and Vikings and will go against another one in the Rams this week. The Rams have been close to being upset in the past 5 weeks though beating the Seahawks 33-31, the Packers 29-27, and the Broncos 23-20. The Saints might have enough to overtake them this week though, actually being favored at home. The best value of the blue picks with a 55% win probability with 50% picking them, the Saints are not a bad bet to win this week. 

Seattle Seahawks:  A tough pick this game, the Seahawks are coming off of a strong win against the Detroit Lions, while the Chargers are coming off of a bye week. The Chargers are a hard team to read as they have only lost to the league powerhouses in the Chiefs and the Rams, but only beat the Raiders, 49ers, Bills, and had a close 19-18 win against the Titans in London in week 7. The Seahawks a more battle tested team lost a close 31-33 game against the undefeated Rams, and have also beaten the Cowboys and Lions by double their opponents’ score. You won’t get much value from this game as they are being picked at the same percentage as their winning probability (55%), but is still a game that can put you ahead half of your league should you pick the game correctly. 

Yellow Picks: 

Houston Texans:  The Texans have won their past 5 games and are now looking towards the Broncos. The Texans acquired star WR Demaryius Thomas at the trade deadline and will now face his former team, the Broncos this week. The Texans in the past 2 weeks have easily beaten the Dolphins and Jaguars, while the Broncos although having one of the toughest schedules in the past 6 weeks, have only beaten the Cardinals and have lost to the Jets in that time span. The Texans are a great value pick this week, being only 27% picked, but having a 48% win probability while being on the road this week. 

New York Jets:  The Jets after winning back to back games against the Colts and Broncos, have lost to much tougher Bears and Vikings teams. The Dolphins are also coming off back to back losses, losing to the Lions and Texans. They are now 1-4 in the past 5 weeks after going 3-0 in the first 3 weeks and with the inconsistent Brock Osweiler still taking the helm of the Dolphins at QB, the Dolphins are in a vulnerable position to be upset this week. The Jets are a great value pick this week, only being picked 18% while having an almost 40% vs 60% winning probability against the Dolphins. 

Oakland Raiders:  The Raiders are a hard team to pick to win any week but this week would be one of your best times to do so. The Raiders are going up against the (1-7) 49ers who have been injury riddled since the start of the season and have not won now since week 2. The 49ers are coming off a 15-18 loss against the Arizona Cardinals who are now (2-6) on the year, both wins this season going against the 49ers. The Raiders are a solid yellow pick this week having only 29% picked but having a 41% win probability. 

Green Picks: 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers, after benching Jameis Winston mid-game amongst throwing a whopping 4 interceptions, lost 31-37 to the Cincinnati Bengals. They will look to re-gain their Fitzmagic against a division rival in the Carolina Panthers who are coming off of a big win versus the Baltimore Ravens last week. A risky green pick, will the Bucs be able to turn it around against a hot Panthers team and potentially win your week?

Detroit:  The Lions are coming off of a 14-28 loss to the Seahawks and will be going up against the Vikings who are also coming off of a tough loss to one of the league’s best New Orleans Saints. Another division rival game, the Lions will have to keep up with the Vikings’ hot offense and solid defense while being on their home turf.

Dale’s Picks: This week, the best value pick is the Jets at 39% win probability and only 18% picked. Otherwise, the money picks aren’t great this week. I’m probably sticking with the base picks since I’m still in first place! But if you need to take a shot, the green picks are it!