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Week 10 Base Pick Points: 69
Season Base Pick Points: 851
(These are the scores you would’ve gotten if you stuck with just our base picks, if you want potential league-winning superior picks then you will need to become a Premium Member).
If you stuck with our base picks this week you would’ve been confronted with a couple big upset picks, some of which our premium members were made aware of prior to the games. The Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills, New York Giants, Washington Redskins and Cleveland Browns pulled out big upsets this week.
There’s a slight change in our data this week, with our “% Picked” statistic now coming from CBS’s Confidence Pool Pick ‘Em Leagues instead of using Yahoo’s data of the same type, as we’ve noticed Yahoo’s inaccuracy with this statistic as of late.
Here are the base picks for Week 11:
Updated Wed. 6:45 PM ET
Here is the free look at the game analysis for the Week 11 Money Picks:
(4-5) Philadelphia Eagles @ (8-1) New Orleans Saints:
The Philadelphia Eagles have fell from their status as the top team in the league this season after winning the Super Bowl last year. Despite their inconsistent results this year, they still hold significant talent on offense and defense. This week more than any other would be the time the Eagles are hungriest in the last 2 seasons after an embarrassing loss at home on Monday Night Football to their biggest rival. This could cause an upset similar to how the Cowboys did to the Eagles this past week. Despite this their roster is banged up and they are playing the best team in the NFL this week. A deep group effort and would be needed to be secure this Green Pick, but that’s what the Green Picks are for.
(3-6) Denver Broncos @ (7-2) Los Angeles Chargers:
The Denver Broncos are coming off a bye this week, which could give them some necessary preparation time to be able to scheme up an upset this week. The Denver Broncos have been on the wrong side of the score total for most of their games this year, but have been able to be hassle to teams of all types this season, especially to a division rival. The Broncos will need to have a prosperous run attack plus some defensive help this week against the talented Los Angeles Chargers team in order to stick with them offensively. The better value pick in terms of % picked and probability of a win than the Eagles this week, the Broncos could be your best bet for a big Green Pick upset.
(3-6) Jacksonville Jaguars vs (6-2-1) Pittsburgh Steelers:
This Jacksonville Jaguars game is similar to the Eagles game this week, where a previously powerful team has fell off with their record this year but still hold some of the key talent that got them so deep last year. The Jaguars last year beat the Steelers handily in Week 5 last year 30-6. The Jaguars will need to recapture their run game and defensive prowess to hold the powerful Steelers within shooting distance to make this upset possible. The best value green pick this week with a 21% differential in “Win Probability” and “% Picked”, the Jaguars will be tested this week at home.
(1-8) Oakland Raiders @ (2-7) Arizona Cardinals:
The Oakland Raiders once again make our list for the Money Picks as they are continuously under picked to win the game relative to their true Win % possibility. The Arizona Cardinals are a below average team this year that at any time could be beaten. They still have showed to be tough against some of the lower teams in the league beating teams such as the 49ers who have proven even sturdier this year. The Raiders have continued to struggle, not being able to score more than 10 points in 4 out of their last 5 games. This statistic actually bodes well for them though as the Cardinals are also a low scoring team and for this point, the Raiders have the potential to upset them.
(3-6) Detroit Lions vs (6-3) Carolina Panthers:
The Detroit Lions have made a couple upsets this year already beating the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers, but have dropped 3 straight recently against above average teams. With the Carolina Panthers dropping 52 points to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, the Lions will look to compete against the Panthers offensively and try to overtake them in this category. Yet the Panthers are still a top team in this league with a solid offense and defense, which will make this game a tough win for the Lions, but it is still feasible and has good value with a 23% differential between “Win Probability” and their “% Picked”.
(4-5) Indianapolis Colts vs (5-4) Tennessee Titans:
The Colts have gotten progressively better this season with a developing run attack and defense coupled with Andrew Luck’s strong pass credentials. The Titans are a great prospect to beat this week as well as they should be feeling pretty good about themselves after a blowout win against the New England Patriots. Coupled with the fact that the Titans have very inconsistent offensive production with their staple being their rush attack who will now be going up against a tough Colts run defense who held Leonard Fournette to 2.2 yards per carry on a high 24 carries last week. The Colts are projected as the slight favorite for this game despite people picking them as the slight underdog making this game a nice Blue Pick.
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