2018 Week 15 Confidence Pool Picks – Premium

Week 14 Base Pick Points: 81 Season Base Pick Points: 1190 Well you did well if you took all of the money picks this week as 4 (Bears, 49ers, Colts, Browns) out of 5 were successful. The only loss being the Baltimore Ravens who were winning with under 2 minutes left but blew the lead and Kansas City forced overtime and took the game from there. Other than the Money Picks: the Jets (who were a money pick for the first look) upset the Bills, the Raiders surprisingly upset the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Miami Dolphins upset the New England Patriots in memorable fashion. Looking forward to this week, the Thursday Night Football game this week is a great AFC West matchup in the wounded but battling Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs teams.
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Week 15 Picks: (Updated Wednesday 5:45 PM ET) CPP Strategy Pick Options: CPP Money Pick Analysis:  Blue Picks: (5-8) New York Giants vs (7-6) Tennessee Titans: The New York Giants have been hot recently, winning 4 out of their last 5 with their offense being the main factor behind it. The Giants can definitely overpower this game if their offense gets going as the Titans are one of the least consistent offenses in the league. The Titans themselves have won two games in a row. Most recently they beat the Jaguars badly on TNF, which was after beating the Jets in a comeback win after losing to the Texans and Colts by multiple touchdowns for their two games before. Odell Beckham is dealing with an injury and is questionable so the Giants may be a little weaker. Although the Giants are only being 3% undervalued, if you pick this game correctly it can help you beat a large percentage who picked the opposite team so choose wisely. (7-6) Indianapolis Colts vs (8-5) Dallas Cowboys: The Indianapolis Colts, one of our money picks last week, had an impressive win over the then 9-3 Houston Texans. They will be at home for this game against the upward trending but less consistent Dallas Cowboys. A key matchup to watch is Dallas’s rushing attack vs the Colts run defense. The Colts have the 6th best run defense and the 5th best pass offense. The Cowboys defense are the best run defense in the league and have the 7th best in pass defense. This should put all of the offensive load on Colts QB Andrew Luck, but I would rather put it on his shoulders than Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott. The recent Cowboys wins against the Saints and twice against the Eagles after acquiring WR Amari Cooper have the league high on them, making this game a blue pick.   Yellow Picks: (7-5) Pittsburgh Steelers vs (9-4) New England Patriots: The Steelers have consistently gone down hill since their big win against the Panthers in week 10, their last win coming with a comeback against the Jaguars in week 11, and losing 3 straight since against the Broncos, Chargers, and then Raiders. Losing starting RB James Conner has been a big blow to their team and on the injury report is listed as questionable to return. QB Ben Roethlisberger is also listed as questionable with some rib contusions but is very likely to play despite possibly being limited in his performance. It is encouraging for the Steelers that the Patriots were ran over by the Dolphins on offense both in the run and pass game and shut down the Patriots run game. The Steelers have both a solid run and pass defense and will look to run the ball effectively with the Patriots being the 6th worst in yards per rush this season. The Patriots are never an easy team to beat with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick still holding the reigns but the Steelers will be aided by being at home and are only being picked 31% compared to their 45% win probability. (3-10) Oakland Raiders @ (5-8) Cincinnati Bengals: The Oakland Raiders just upset the better of the Raiders’ division rival; the Pittsburgh Steelers last week and almost upset the Kansas City Chiefs the week prior. Better offensive production from QB Derek Carr has allowed the Raiders to compete in this past weeks and they will look to do so again on Sunday. The Bengals have lost 5 straight games with QB Andy Dalton out for the season and their defense being one of the league’s worst. This is a great game for the Raiders to make a statement that they can produce offensively while ruining their perfect draft position. With only 24% picking them, the Raiders while on the road are still a good yellow pick with a 42% win probability. (10-3) Los Angeles Chargers vs (11-2) Kansas City Chiefs: The Chargers would’ve tied for the division lead last week if only the Chiefs weren’t so resilient. The Chiefs had a hard time against the Ravens defense last week and shutting down their offense will be a priority for any team this season including the Chargers this week. The Chargers are a better than average pass defense and they’ll need to stay solid against Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and their explosive receivers. With their backup running back already ruled out as injured, the Chargers are hoping their star RB Melvin Gordon can come back from his injury as he’s listed as questionable for the moment. Although Gordon most likely won’t have a full workload if he does play, their replacement RB rookie Justin Jackson has played well in his absence. These two teams matchup pretty evenly with the Chiefs having a better offense but the Chargers having a better defense. This game should be closer than expected as the Chargers are a quality team and fighting for the division lead en route to the playoffs and usually don’t go down easily. This makes them a valuable yellow pick as they are only 18% picked.   Green Picks: (3-10) San Francisco 49ers vs (8-5) Seattle Seahawks: Coming off of an upset win over the Denver Broncos, the San Francisco 49ers will go on the road to face a strong Seattle Seahawks team. The Seahawks are coming off of their MNF win against the Minnesota Vikings and are now on a 4 game win streak beating the Packers and Panthers on the way. The last game included in the win streak is their first matchup with the 49ers 2 weeks ago where they won with 27-points to spare. The 49ers will need to shut down Seattle’s run game like they did to the Broncos in order to give themselves a chance in this game. The Seattle Seahawks are preparing to take a wildcard position and the 49ers would like to beat a division rival. If an upset were to occur, the 49ers have the best value of the bunch this week with only 4% picking them and a 29% win probability. (4-9) New York Jets vs (9-4) Houston Texans: The New York Jets will attempt to be a consecutively successful money pick after beating the Bills last week, as they take on a much tougher Houston Texans team. The Jets were able to scrape by with a win against the Bills after scoring 14 points in the 4th quarter compared to the Bills 3. The Jets may be hampered with all 3 of their RB’s listed questionable as well as one of their starting WR’s. The Texans aren’t an unbeatable team but are consistently tough to take down. We’ll see how the Jets will handle them this Sunday with a 28% win probability and only 4% picking them.