Week 15 Base Pick Points: 81
Season Base Pick Points: 1271
There were 6 upsets this week with 4 of the Money picks representing in that list. The money picks that were successful were 1 green pick (49ers upsetting the Seahawks), 2 yellow picks (Chargers beating the Chiefs, and Steelers defeating the Patriots), and 1 blue pick (the Colts destroying the Cowboys). Besides that, 2 NFC East teams (the Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Redskins) were the other upset picks that had very low win probabilities and were semi-unexpected. Looking ahead to this week, there is no Thursday Night Football game but there will be 2 Saturday football games so don’t forget to put in your picks by this Saturday @ 4:30 PM ET! Some matchups to look out for this week, that are not money picks are: the Kansas City Chiefs vs the Seattle Seahawks, the Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers, and the Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints games as these teams are closely matched and fighting for playoff implications.
Week 16 Picks – First Look:
Here’s the Premium Money Picks Table for Week 16.
(Updated Saturday 12:00 PM ET)
CPP Strategy Pick Options:
CPP Money Pick Analysis:
(5-9) Atlanta Falcons @ (6-8) Carolina Panthers:
The Atlanta Falcons have had little success this season, but their best win actually came against the Panthers back in week 2. Atlanta still has some stars and enough talent on their team to compete with weaker teams and are lucky they are running into the Panthers with QB Cam Newton set not to play with a shoulder injury. With the Falcons being stronger in pass defense, Newton’s injury will help slow the Panthers pass offense down even more. The Falcons are coming off a 40-14 win to the Arizona Cardinals while the Panthers are on a 6-game losing streak. The Falcons are now almost picked proportionally to their win probability with their % picked now at 58%, making this game less valuable as a money pick, but with Cam Newton out of this game, if the Falcons win, you’ll still be able to separate yourself from a large portion of your league.
(7-7) Philadelphia Eagles vs (10-4) Houston Texans:
The Philadelphia Eagles have had a very inconsistent season due to injuries, a hangover from their Super Bowl victory last year, and in general a reduction in play quality. With backup QB and Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles in, the Eagles seemed to return to their old ways again, scoring their second most points in a game this year. This game looks to be pass heavy with both teams having weaker run games that will go against better run defenses, while both teams also have a strong passing attack that will face weak pass defenses. The Eagles saw improved defensive play last week, and with their already strong defensive line they will surely get pressure on the Texans’ offensive line, who leads the league in sacks allowed. This will help in a game where the Texans will have to depend on getting most of their production from passing. The Texans, after giving up their 9 game winning streak to the Colts last week, were close to being upset by the Jets as they were down by 3 points with 4 minutes left but scored 10 points to win in the end. If the Eagles can continue to produce offensively with QB Nick Foles, and are able to reign in Texans’ quick QB Deshaun Watson to produce some sacks, then the Eagles should be able to continue their playoff chase. With the public being almost split on who to pick for this game, if you are able to pick the right team you would be able to distance yourself from about half the league.
(4-10) New York Jets vs (5-8-1) Green Bay Packers:
The Jets are coming off of a close loss to the Houston Texans and have been playing better recently. The Packers played competitively against the Bears last week but have struggled to play consistently all season. The Packers are banged up at running back with their starting running back out for the year and their backup being questionable to play for the game. The Packers have also not won any of their 7 road games and they will be again on the road this week to New Jersey. Most people would trust Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers over the New York Jets in general but with two weak teams going at each other, the Jets could definitely pull out a win this week. The Jets have a 42% win probability, but are only 22% picked and are a good option for a yellow pick this week.
(3-11) Oakland Raiders vs (6-8) Denver Broncos:
The Raiders lost 16-30 last week and were not successful as a money pick against the Cincinnati Bengals. Now facing the Denver Broncos, the Raiders still have a 41% win probability in a very volatile league where anybody can win any week. The Broncos have been upset the past 2 weeks and are able to be beaten when their run game is held to a minimum. This will be the key for the Raiders to win this game and with their porous run defense it will be a challenge for them. The Raiders will be at home where they have won 2 out of their 3 wins and with only 25% picking them they make for a solid yellow pick.
(8-6) Baltimore Ravens @ (11-3) Los Angeles Chargers:
The Baltimore Ravens after losing 24-27 in a comeback loss to the Kansas City Chiefs game 2 weeks ago, beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-12 last week. The Los Angeles Chargers just played the Chiefs and won in comeback fashion 29-28 on Thursday Night Football. The Chargers are a similar team to the Chiefs and for this reason I believe matchup well for the Ravens who will need to perform well in their strong areas, defense and run offense to succeed in this game. The Ravens are 4-1 in their last 5 games and with only 7% picked and a 34% win probability the Ravens are a good green pick.
(4-10) Jacksonville Jaguars @ (7-7) Miami Dolphins:
The Jaguars had a disappointing loss to the Washington Redskins last week who had a recently signed free agent QB Josh Johnson starting for them. The Dolphins are a quality team but let up 41 points and 200+ rushing yards last week to the Minnesota Vikings who have produced little on offense this year, especially in the run game. Luckily the Jaguars’ run game is where most of their talent is offensively and the Dolphins have a weaker defense. If the Jaguars can take advantage of the Dolphins starting RB Frank Gore being injured for the year and also dramatically slow down the Dolphins offense who only put up 17 points against a similar defense to the Jaguars in the Minnesota Vikings. If the Jaguars can put up points on the board and shut down the Miami offense, then the Jets will make for a great green pick with only 6% picking them.
(4-10) San Francisco 49ers vs (10-4) Chicago Bears:
The 49ers made a good upset pick last week against a better Seattle Seahawks team. The Chicago Bears have probably the best defense in the league and the 49ers will again need to score points in order to beat the Bears. The 49ers have a good run defense and against the Bears’ weaker run game may be able to make the Bears more one-dimensional. The combination of these two points will give the 49ers their only hope to win to this tough team. If they do though it would make for the most valuable money pick of the week with a 32% win probability and only 6% picked.