Category Archives: Picks

Week 6: Advanced NFL Stats Update

Update after the Advanced NFL stats win probabilities came out:

 

The ANS model picks New England over New Orleans. So I’m going to bail on New England as my all in pick and go with Carolina over Minnesota, and hedging Indy over SD a bit since I’m going to keep my dad’s all in pick for SD over Indy:

As I mentioned, Dad will be staying with SD over Indy. Also hedging a bit for Minnesota (since I picked Carolina big for myself):

Here we go! This week, we are big Chargers, Panthers, and Jets fans!… >>read more>>

Week 6: Pick Em and Confidence Pool Picks

Week 6 features an almost 100% chance that Denver with beat Jacksonville. Interesting. Definitely not going contrarian with this game!

Here are this week’s picks based on Moneyline (I’ll check back in later when I find out the Advanced NFL Stats model picks). There’s one good contrarian pick here, that’s New England vs New Orleans (57% win, 28% picked). Guess losing the the Bengals last week was enough to scare people away! Two other candidates are Indianapolis vs SD (which was a “Pick Em” game, i.e 50/50 shot, but only 17% picked SD), and a mild one with the Jets vs Pittsburgh:

The “undecided” people’s picks are interesting because it gives us a cheap way to leapfrog some people… If we go high on NYJ over Pit, we get a 58% win probability but can beat 43% of the crowd.… >>read more>>

Confidence Picks: Week 5 Results

This week was painful. The Bengal’s “People’s upset” over the Patriots came true as Tom Brady got picked off to seal a Cincinnati 13-6 victory and break his streak of touchdown pass games at 52, 2 short of Drew Brees’s record. However, it did nothing to help my cause as I ended up in 15th place with 66 points. Top teams had 79, 77, and 74 points. The pick I made for my dad, the Tennessee upset over Kansas City, didn’t pan out. He ended up way down the list.

Two games, if they swung differently, would’ve netted me 4th place.… >>read more>>