This week, I’m going to bump up two teams to the top again who are contrarian or semi-contrarian picks. This is also the last week I get Dad’s picks, so hopefully we can win one this week. Here are the baseline picks (Advanced NFL Stats data forthcoming):
Based on Moneyline data, there are three “people’s upsets” (in green) and three where there are relatively high win probabilities but a decent percentage of people picking the other way (in blue). Tomorrow, the ANS model picks should be out and I will confirm my selections then. Meanwhile, the games in green are potential all-in contrarian picks.… >>read more>>
This week, both of my “all-in” picks were correct… yet I still ended up in the middle of the pack. Both Carolina and San Diego came through with the people’s upset. The second place team didn’t use any practical strategy, he/she just went 15 for the first game, 14 for the second game, on down the line to 1. There’s really no strategy to go against no strategy, other than let the percentages play out.
The game that killed me this week was the Pittsburgh vs NYJ game. The Jets had a 58-63% win probability, but only 57% of the people chose them to win, so I took that chance to bump them up some.… >>read more>>
Update after the Advanced NFL stats win probabilities came out:
The ANS model picks New England over New Orleans. So I’m going to bail on New England as my all in pick and go with Carolina over Minnesota, and hedging Indy over SD a bit since I’m going to keep my dad’s all in pick for SD over Indy:
As I mentioned, Dad will be staying with SD over Indy. Also hedging a bit for Minnesota (since I picked Carolina big for myself):
Here we go! This week, we are big Chargers, Panthers, and Jets fans!… >>read more>>