For the first 4 weeks, I’ve used Moneyline probabilities for wins. I also really like using Advanced NFL Stats Win Probability model. It’s based off data, versus public perception, which has its pros and cons. The ANS probability model for week 5 just came through.
What this does is add some colors to my tables… I put blue as ANS “People’s Upset” pick, yellow as Moneyline ones, and green are both ANS and Moneyline “People’s Upset” picks. Both showed Cincinnati over NE as a people’s upset, so I’m going to stick with that for my pick. For my dad’s pick of Chi over NO, the ANS model shows NO with a 66% win probability, so no upset there.… >>read more>>
My dad is out of town. What does that have to do with you? Well it means an extra pick for me to play with! Dad turned his pick over to me, so I get to try TWO strategies instead of one.
Week 5 of the NFL season gives us two interesting contrarian picks… Like Week 3, these picks feel REALLY wrong. However, in Week 3, it turned out the Vegas moneylines were right… The two wrong-feeling picks this week are Cincinnati (54% win probability, 25% picked) over New England (gasp! picking against Tom Brady?) and Chicago (50% win probability, 27% picked) over New Orleans (gasp!… >>read more>>
Week 4 was not kind to me. I ended up with 87, tied for 16th place out of 52 teams. Top scorer had 109 points, 2nd place 100, and third place 98. I’m not even pictured in the results summary. Here are my results:
One of my contrarian picks, Pittsburgh, lost to Adrian Peterson and the Vikings in London. Losing a contrarian pick is pretty painful, as you went against everyone and were wrong. The other contrarian pick, Detroit over Chicago, paid off as the Lions beat the Bears (oh my). The other semi-contrarian pick, Seattle with only 1 point, didn’t work out as well, but it was pretty damn close as Seattle barely pulled off an overtime comeback victory (Matt Schaub with a really stupid pick 6 in the 4th quarter, which got a hamburger named after him).… >>read more>>