Category Archives: Picks

Week 6: Pick Em and Confidence Pool Picks

Week 6 features an almost 100% chance that Denver with beat Jacksonville. Interesting. Definitely not going contrarian with this game!

Here are this week’s picks based on Moneyline (I’ll check back in later when I find out the Advanced NFL Stats model picks). There’s one good contrarian pick here, that’s New England vs New Orleans (57% win, 28% picked). Guess losing the the Bengals last week was enough to scare people away! Two other candidates are Indianapolis vs SD (which was a “Pick Em” game, i.e 50/50 shot, but only 17% picked SD), and a mild one with the Jets vs Pittsburgh:

The “undecided” people’s picks are interesting because it gives us a cheap way to leapfrog some people… If we go high on NYJ over Pit, we get a 58% win probability but can beat 43% of the crowd.… >>read more>>

Confidence Picks: Week 5 Results

This week was painful. The Bengal’s “People’s upset” over the Patriots came true as Tom Brady got picked off to seal a Cincinnati 13-6 victory and break his streak of touchdown pass games at 52, 2 short of Drew Brees’s record. However, it did nothing to help my cause as I ended up in 15th place with 66 points. Top teams had 79, 77, and 74 points. The pick I made for my dad, the Tennessee upset over Kansas City, didn’t pan out. He ended up way down the list.

Two games, if they swung differently, would’ve netted me 4th place.… >>read more>>

Update: Week 5 – Dad’s pick with ANS data

For the first 4 weeks, I’ve used Moneyline probabilities for wins. I also really like using Advanced NFL Stats Win Probability model. It’s based off data, versus public perception, which has its pros and cons. The ANS probability model for week 5 just came through.

What this does is add some colors to my tables… I put blue as ANS “People’s Upset” pick, yellow as Moneyline ones, and green are both ANS and Moneyline “People’s Upset” picks. Both showed Cincinnati over NE as a people’s upset, so I’m going to stick with that for my pick. For my dad’s pick of Chi over NO, the ANS model shows NO with a 66% win probability, so no upset there.… >>read more>>