Category Archives: Reports

Base pick record and the Weekly vs Season win tradeoff

A new nuggets from the CPP community:

@gggg figured out what the base picks would have gotten you this season up to Week 10. How does that compare with your league?

W-L 101-46 Pts 838

@Ironclad posted a chart showing the trade off between going for a season win (Expected Point Total, blue) vs going for the weekly win (Prob of Weekly Win, orange), using the week 9 green Money Pick (Pittsburgh vs the Jets). Basically, you can gain 5% probability of a weekly win by trading off 1.5 total season points as you increase the confidence points you put on this green Money Pick.… >>read more>>

Week 10 Best Money Pick: Small league

@Ironclad runs another analysis on Week 10:

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I ran a retrospective study based on the poolwide picks in my 32-player league. This is for a specific league and answers the question, What picks would have resulted in the highest probability of a weekly win in this league? This is assuming the win probabilities in the Week 10 Update table.

Start with the base picks from the Week 10 Update table. If you pick a single underdog, you should give it max points for the best chance of a weekly win. In my league, max points is 16, but the results should be similar if max points is 13.… >>read more>>

Week 10 Best Money Pick: Large league

Again from @Ironclad:

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I ran a retrospective study based on the poolwide picks in my 77-player league. These results are for this specific league and answer the question, What picks would have resulted in the highest probability of a weekly win in this league? This is assuming the win probabilities in the Week 10 Update table.

As with the smaller, 32-player league, NYJ would have been the best underdog pick this week. Unlike the smaller league, you have to be more aggressive, however, in order to improve your chances of winning in such a large league. SF over NO is a great pick, for example, but with 13% of people picking them (it was 9 of 77 in this league), it’s possible that others may have given them high points.… >>read more>>