Week 14 Confidence Pool Picks

Couple of notes for Week 14: Green Bay vs Atlanta had no line because of the uncertainty over Aaron Rodgers. I assigned a 50/50 split for them, and it averaged out to 57%, which felt right. Rodgers practiced but wasn’t clear to play. Also, New England vs Cleveland had no Moneyline assigned to it, which I still haven’t found an answer to why. I gave it a 80% win probability based off the 11 point favorite status, which averaged out to 72%. That felt right too.

I’ve highlighted potential deep upset picks in dark green. The best one of the bunch is Washington over KC (5% picked, 45% win probability).… >>read more>>

Week 13 Results – I’ve created a Dad monster

Since Week 13 occurred over Thanksgiving, I was home to make my picks and got to sit next to Dad while he made his picks. I showed him the post from my site last week, and he based his picks off of it and also went with my all-in contrarian picks. (After discovering the payout for first place overall, we decided that I would go the safe route and try to win the league, and my dad will go with the all-in pick route to try to win the week). He ended up taking first place, as Atlanta upset Buffalo to make that happen, and Minnesota beat Chicago in OT after Chicago inexplicably attempted a 47 yard FG on first down and missed.… >>read more>>