Week 12 Picks

There’s been some great discussions on the comments the last few weeks. Thanks to @GM and @Frank for contributing. @Frank has questioned the all-in strategy, and I have some new information about how our league pays out that supports his thinking.

Here’s the data for this week’s picks.

Note I did not count ANS’s 83% probability for the Packers; one thing about a mathematical model is it doesn’t know that Aaron Rodgers is out. And as a Packer fan, I know that is pretty important to consider. The Moneyline gambler folks know Aaron Rodgers is out, so I’ll go with their pick.… >>read more>>

Week 11 Results – In the money!

We’re in the money! Dad took second place after my two all in contrarian picks panned out, capped off by Carolina defeating the Patriots on the controversial non-pass interference call (although it was the right call). On Sunday, Buffalo had beaten the Jets for the other pick.

As for my picks, I was a Tennessee win from taking first place. Unfortunately, the Colts came back to win by 3 points. My team ended up out of the money.


My results:

Dad’s results:

 … >>read more>>