Confidence Pool Picks – Week 3

I love having Thursday night games… it just makes us do my Yahoo PickEm picks earlier! It’s like football never ends… which I guess isn’t a bad thing.

For Week 3, there seem to be a bunch of good contrarian picks. I must admit, they do seem counter-intuitive to me. Miami favored over Atlanta? Carolina over the Giants? But the people who make the lines in Vegas have a lot more incentive to get it right than you and me, and it gives us the advantage in a Yahoo Pick em league.

Only 18% of the people picked Miami and Carolina.… >>read more>>

Confidence Pool Pick – Week 2

Here are my confidence pool picks for Week 2 of the 2013 NFL Season. This week gave us a few more contrarian picks than last week, where I had to go all in with a win probability of 34% (San Diego upsetting Houston on Monday night). That ALMOST worked out as San Diego had the lead most of the game and only a Houston TD and pick 6 in the 4th quarter tied the game, with Houston pulling out a game winning FG as time ran out to drop me out of first place.

[See my Yahoo pick ’em/confidence pool strategy]

This chart shows the games in reverse order of win probability (ML%), according to the Moneyline values set by bookkeepers.… >>read more>>

(2012) NFL Pick ‘Em: Week 2 Results

Last post, I introduced my Pick ‘Em strategy. My contrarian pick was the Philadelphia beating Baltimore, which I set at 16 points because only 16% of the population picked Philly to win despite them being favored by 3 points. I got to watch Michael Vick take the Eagles down the field and cap it off with TD run to win 23-22 as time ran out. Here’s how it turned out (click to enlarge, my team is the yellow box):

After the Falcons took care of business on Monday night against Denver, I ended up in first place. Woohoo! What a great week to start posting about my Pick ‘Em strategy.… >>read more>>