Here are my confidence pool picks for Week 2 of the 2013 NFL Season. This week gave us a few more contrarian picks than last week, where I had to go all in with a win probability of 34% (San Diego upsetting Houston on Monday night). That ALMOST worked out as San Diego had the lead most of the game and only a Houston TD and pick 6 in the 4th quarter tied the game, with Houston pulling out a game winning FG as time ran out to drop me out of first place.
[See my Yahoo pick ’em/confidence pool strategy]
This chart shows the games in reverse order of win probability (ML%), according to the Moneyline values set by bookkeepers.… >>read more>>
Last post, I introduced my Pick ‘Em strategy. My contrarian pick was the Philadelphia beating Baltimore, which I set at 16 points because only 16% of the population picked Philly to win despite them being favored by 3 points. I got to watch Michael Vick take the Eagles down the field and cap it off with TD run to win 23-22 as time ran out. Here’s how it turned out (click to enlarge, my team is the yellow box):
After the Falcons took care of business on Monday night against Denver, I ended up in first place. Woohoo! What a great week to start posting about my Pick ‘Em strategy.… >>read more>>
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Picking in a confidence pool league or Yahoo Pick Em League with confidence points involves two things: accuracy and contrarian-ness. Accuracy is picking the right team to win and putting the right confidence level to it. However, it’s virtually impossible to pick all the teams right. If it were easy, we wouldn’t need to care for the second part of the equation: contrarian-ness. To be a contrarian is to be someone who goes the opposite way; someone who zigs when others zag. If you pick the same as everyone in the league, you’ll probably end up in the middle of the pack… out of the money.… >>read more>>