This week was painful. The Bengal’s “People’s upset” over the Patriots came true as Tom Brady got picked off to seal a Cincinnati 13-6 victory and break his streak of touchdown pass games at 52, 2 short of Drew Brees’s record. However, it did nothing to help my cause as I ended up in 15th place with 66 points. Top teams had 79, 77, and 74 points. The pick I made for my dad, the Tennessee upset over Kansas City, didn’t pan out. He ended up way down the list.
Two games, if they swung differently, would’ve netted me 4th place.… >>read more>>
For the first 4 weeks, I’ve used Moneyline probabilities for wins. I also really like using Advanced NFL Stats Win Probability model. It’s based off data, versus public perception, which has its pros and cons. The ANS probability model for week 5 just came through.
What this does is add some colors to my tables… I put blue as ANS “People’s Upset” pick, yellow as Moneyline ones, and green are both ANS and Moneyline “People’s Upset” picks. Both showed Cincinnati over NE as a people’s upset, so I’m going to stick with that for my pick. For my dad’s pick of Chi over NO, the ANS model shows NO with a 66% win probability, so no upset there.… >>read more>>
My dad is out of town. What does that have to do with you? Well it means an extra pick for me to play with! Dad turned his pick over to me, so I get to try TWO strategies instead of one.
Week 5 of the NFL season gives us two interesting contrarian picks… Like Week 3, these picks feel REALLY wrong. However, in Week 3, it turned out the Vegas moneylines were right… The two wrong-feeling picks this week are Cincinnati (54% win probability, 25% picked) over New England (gasp! picking against Tom Brady?) and Chicago (50% win probability, 27% picked) over New Orleans (gasp!… >>read more>>